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European Concern Over Bird Flu Mounts

World is a "Dangerous Place," HHS Secretary Warns

October 18, 2005
There's mounting concern in Europe over the spread of the deadly avian flu strain, with a second case reported in Romania. The European Union has blocked poultry shipments from Greece following confirmation that the virus was found in a turkey.

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U.S. Secretary for Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt, on a tour of Asian countries affected by the disease, likened the bird flu virus to a forest that was "ripe and ready for a fire."

"The world is a biologically dangerous place right now. Avian influenza is spreading to other nations and to other continents. An outbreak anywhere means that there is risk everywhere," Leavitt said. "No nation can afford to ignore this. The effects of a pandemic go well beyond personal health. They affect economics, they affect politics, they affect social issues, and social concerns."

Roche, the Swiss drugmaker, said it was considering granting other firms permission to make Tamiflu, the antiviral drug thought to be most effective against the flu, in the face of massive global demand.

The World Health Organization said earlier this week that it was in talks with Roche about boosting output of Tamiflu. The Swiss firm had already announced plans to double production this year, and again in 2006, as governments follow WHO advice and place bulk orders for stockpiles.

But Mike Ryan, WHO director for epidemic and pandemic alert, said supplies were clearly insufficient to face up to a potential bird flu pandemic if the steadily spreading avian virus jumps to humans.

Most health ministers are trying to downplay fears of a human pandemic, noting that the disease is still confined to birds and those who come in direct contact with them. It is not spread from one human to another.

In Britan, the government's chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, has warned that a bird flu pandemic would be likely to cause about 50,000 deaths in Britain, though he conceded it might not happen this winter.

Nevertheless, Britons lined up for flu shots and many said they would avoid turkey at this year's traditional Christmas feast.

Flu kills more than 12,000 people in Britain every winter, but the number could go much higher if the bird flu virus mutates into a form which passes easily between humans. The government has ordered 14 million doses of Tamiflu, bBut so far only 2.5 million doses have been stockpiled.

HHS Secretary Leavitt said surveillance and information exchange are essential in fighting the lethal H5N1. While most of the people who have contracted the disease have caught it from close contact with infected poultry, scientists are concerned the disease may change to one easily passed between people, causing a pandemic that could kill millions.

"Surveillance is very clearly our first line of defense, but it only works if there is transparency, if there is timely sharing of information, and if there is a spirit of cooperation," Leavitt said.

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